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Greater Odesa Port Attacks Could Cost Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector Up to $3 Billion

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Ukraine and Spain Discuss Impact of Port Attacks

The consequences of Russian attacks on the port infrastructure of Greater Odesa for Ukrainian agricultural exports were a key topic of a meeting between Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, and Spanish Ambassador to Ukraine Ricardo López-Aranda Jagu.

The two sides discussed risks to Ukrainian agricultural supplies, possible assistance for producers and the development of alternative logistics routes.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the stable operation of the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi is critical not only to the Ukrainian economy but also to global food security.

Black Sea Ports Handle Around 90% of Exports

Around 90% of Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports are shipped through Black Sea ports. Maritime logistics allows exporters to move large cargo volumes at a lower cost than road or rail transport.

Taras Vysotskyi said other transport corridors were physically incapable of fully replacing the Black Sea ports. Even under the most favorable conditions, rail, road and Danube routes could handle only 45–50% of Ukraine’s annual agricultural exports.

Prolonged disruption to maritime shipments could therefore lead to grain accumulating inside the country, lower domestic purchasing prices and reduced revenue for agricultural producers.

Alternative Logistics Adds €50–70 per Tonne

Redirecting cargo to road, rail and Danube routes significantly increases delivery costs.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy estimates that alternative logistics would add between €50 and €70 to the cost of transporting each tonne of agricultural products.

Total losses for Ukraine’s agricultural sector could reach between $1.5 billion and $3 billion if maritime export disruption continues.

Higher transport expenses are particularly damaging to grain producers because logistics costs directly reduce the price exporters can offer farmers. The burden would be even greater for farms located far from Ukraine’s western borders and Danube ports.

Storage Shortfall Could Reach 11 Million Tonnes

Restricted export capacity is also creating risks for the harvesting campaign and storage of the new crop.

Unless the maritime situation improves, Ukraine could face a shortage of storage capacity amounting to 11 million tonnes as early as this autumn.

The ministry is working to provide producers with temporary storage equipment, including grain bags. It is also developing affordable lending mechanisms for farmers requiring additional financing to complete harvesting and preserve their crops.

A lack of available silo capacity could force farms to sell grain immediately after harvesting at lower prices or store it under less suitable conditions.

Spain Ready to Consider Further Assistance

The meeting also covered opportunities to expand agricultural cooperation between Ukraine and Spain, support alternative logistics and attract international assistance.

Ambassador Ricardo López-Aranda Jagu reaffirmed the support of the Spanish government and public for Ukraine. He said Spain was prepared to consider further assistance for the Ukrainian agricultural sector, including alternative logistics development, export support and joint projects aimed at strengthening food security.

No specific funding amount, assistance schedule or list of projects has yet been announced.

International Support Must Cover Logistics and Storage

Limiting losses in Ukraine’s agricultural sector will require more than additional transport routes. Export infrastructure will need comprehensive support.

Potential measures include expanding the capacity of Danube routes and land border crossings, providing temporary storage equipment, improving access to financing and coordinating agricultural shipments with European partners.

However, even a significant expansion of alternative corridors would not provide the same capacity, speed and cost efficiency as the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa.

Maintaining safe maritime navigation therefore remains the main condition for stable Ukrainian agricultural exports and reliable food supplies to international markets.

Read also: Ukrainian Ports Under Massive UAV Attacks

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