From Euphoria to Anxiety
Just a few months ago, the industry was performing exceptionally well. In February 2026, cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK) jumped by 11.1% compared to the previous year. It seemed the world had finally found its footing. However, the March volleys in Iran instantly crossed out optimistic charts: global cargo turnover plummeted by 4.8%. For airlines with routes spanning the Middle East, the blow was devastating—a 54.3% decline.
At the CNS partnership conference in San Francisco, leading analysts from IATA and Aevean painted a stark picture: instead of the anticipated 5.5% growth in capacity, the market faced a 9% contraction.
A Volatile Mix: Prices and Politics
The primary “headache” for carriers is the rapidly rising price of fuel. The record gap between crude oil prices and aviation kerosene (the so-called “crack spread”) is hitting business margins hard, fueling inflation.
The situation is further complicated by global tectonic shifts in trade. Businesses are frantically reconfiguring supply chains: the flow of goods from China to the U.S. is drying up, giving way to shipments from Taiwan and Vietnam. Global trade is becoming increasingly fragmented and unpredictable.
Bright Spots and Red Flags
Is there a glimmer of light in this cloud of uncertainty? Absolutely. The high-tech sector is demonstrating remarkable resilience. Imports of computing equipment for data centers into the U.S. are hitting record highs—over the last three months, this segment has “swallowed” the equivalent of 52 wide-body freighter flights daily.
However, in other niches, things are much bleaker: the e-commerce market has shown a decline for the first time in a long while. Sales volumes in this sector dropped by 45% in the Middle East and South Asia, and by 24% in North America. Consumers, squeezed by inflation and high fuel prices, are beginning to tighten their belts and cut back on non-essential spending.
A Lesson for the Future: Adapt or Fail
Andrew Matters of IATA makes no secret of his skepticism: the current conflict is just the tip of the iceberg. Ahead, the industry faces trade wars, new tariffs, and total uncertainty.
“More disruptions are coming,” warns Marco Bloemen of Aevean.
For those looking to survive the skies of the future, there is only one recipe: maximum flexibility, route diversification, and readiness for “storms” of any magnitude. The era of calm planning is over—the era of resilience has arrived, where the winner is not the fastest, but the most adaptable.
