Even if shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes tomorrow, the global oil market is unlikely to return to normal anytime soon. According to leading industry analysts, the consequences of what has become the most significant disruption to energy logistics in decades could be felt for many months, with a full recovery of supply chains potentially extending into 2027.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Key Source of Market Instability
Before the conflict began, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of global oil exports and a substantial share of liquefied natural gas shipments. However, following the outbreak of military hostilities between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition in late February 2026, traffic through the strategic waterway was effectively brought to a halt.
The impact was immediate. A sharp reduction in energy supplies triggered a surge in prices for crude oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. Rising energy costs quickly spread across transportation, manufacturing, and consumer markets, adding fresh inflationary pressure to economies around the world.
Recovery Will Take Much Longer Than Markets Expect
According to participants at the meeting, even an immediate ceasefire would not solve the problem overnight. Oil producers, shipping companies, traders, and logistics providers will require significant time to restore trade routes, reposition tanker fleets, renegotiate contracts, and return supply volumes to pre-crisis levels.
This outlook aligns with earlier comments made by Adnoc CEO Sultan Al Jaber. He previously warned that a complete normalization of Middle Eastern energy exports could take years rather than months, with market stability potentially not returning until mid-2027.
Who Advises OPEC?
To support its long-term market assessments, OPEC regularly consults some of the world’s leading energy, shipping, and commodities research organizations.
Recent discussions included contributions from experts representing the following firms:
- S&P Global — Martina L. Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer;
- FGE NexantECA — Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Founder and Chairman;
- Vortexa — Fabio Kuhn, Founder and Chief Executive Officer;
- Kpler — François Cazor, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer;
- Energy Aspects — Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Research.
These organizations are widely regarded as some of the most influential providers of market intelligence and forecasting in the global energy sector.
What Comes Next?
The findings from these consultations are expected to form part of the analytical briefing materials prepared for OPEC ministers ahead of the organization’s ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7.
If the forecasts presented in Vienna prove accurate, the global oil market could face more than a temporary price spike. Analysts warn of an extended period of heightened volatility, transportation bottlenecks, and a broader reshaping of global energy trade flows.
For the logistics industry, this would mean continued pressure from elevated fuel costs, higher freight rates, and ongoing disruptions to international supply chains through at least the end of 2026.
