Transport Intelligence has published its annual report on the state of the European road freight industry, and the results are more positive than previously expected. After several difficult years marked by weak demand, inflation, high energy costs, and pressure on margins, the European road freight market is showing signs of recovery.
According to the report, the total value of the European road freight market will reach €440 billion in 2025. This represents growth of 1.4% compared with 2024 and exceeds the company’s earlier forecast, which expected growth of 1.1%.
Earlier, we reported that new road charging systems in Europe are increasing the cost burden on transport companies. The latest Transport Intelligence data confirms that infrastructure costs are becoming one of the most important factors shaping the financial outlook for the sector.
Lower Inflation Supports Freight Demand
One of the main reasons behind the improved forecast is the decline in inflation across Europe.
High inflation previously reduced consumer demand, increased operating costs, and created uncertainty for manufacturers and retailers. This directly affected freight volumes, especially in sectors connected to consumer goods, construction materials, and industrial production.
As inflation slows, businesses are becoming more confident in planning purchases, production, and inventories. This supports demand for road transport services, especially in domestic markets.
Temporary stabilization of the energy market has also helped carriers. Although fuel remains one of the largest operating costs in road freight, the absence of sharp price shocks gives companies more room to plan routes, negotiate contracts, and manage fleet expenses.
For transport companies, predictability is almost as important as lower costs. Stable energy prices make it easier to calculate freight rates and reduce the risk of sudden losses on long-term contracts.
EU Economy Adds Momentum to the Market
Another factor supporting the recovery is the expected growth of the European Union economy.
Transport Intelligence links the improved outlook to EU GDP growth of around 1.5%. Even moderate economic growth can have a noticeable effect on road freight, because the sector is closely connected to production, retail, construction, and cross-border trade.
When factories increase output, retailers rebuild inventories, and supply chains become more active, trucks are usually among the first parts of the economy to feel the change.
However, the recovery remains uneven. Some markets are improving faster than others, while several major economies continue to face structural weakness.
Road Tolls Remain a Major Challenge
Despite the positive forecast, the report also highlights serious obstacles for the industry.
The most important challenge is the sharp increase in road tolls across Europe. For many carriers, toll payments have become one of the fastest-growing cost items.
This pressure is especially difficult for small and medium-sized transport companies. Larger operators often have stronger negotiating positions, more efficient fleets, and better access to financing. Smaller carriers, however, may find it much harder to absorb higher infrastructure costs.
The issue is particularly important for international transport. A route that was profitable last year may become less attractive if several countries increase road charges at the same time.
As K2Cargo News recently reported, Lithuania will introduce kilometer-based road tolls for trucks in 2027, adding another example of how European road pricing is changing.
International Transport Expected to Grow Faster in 2026
Transport Intelligence expects the European road freight market to continue growing in 2026.
According to the forecast, the sector will expand by 1.6%, reaching a total value of around €448 billion. The strongest growth is expected in international road transport, where the market could increase by 2.2%.
This reflects the gradual recovery of cross-border trade within Europe. As supply chains stabilize and industrial activity improves, demand for international freight services is expected to strengthen.
For carriers involved in cross-border operations, this may create new opportunities. Routes between manufacturing centers, ports, logistics hubs, and consumer markets could become more active.
At the same time, international transport remains exposed to higher risks, including fuel prices, toll systems, driver shortages, and regulatory changes.
Fuel Volatility and Weak Major Economies Remain Risks
The report also warns that several factors could limit growth.
One of the main risks is fuel price volatility linked to the situation in the Middle East. Any disruption in oil supply or increase in geopolitical tension could quickly affect diesel prices in Europe.
For road transport companies, this is a critical issue. Even a moderate rise in fuel prices can reduce margins if freight rates do not adjust quickly enough.
Another concern is the weaker outlook for Germany, France, and Italy — the three largest economies in Europe. These countries play a central role in road freight as major production centers, consumer markets, and transit corridors.
Weak industrial output in Germany, slower consumer demand in France, or economic uncertainty in Italy could limit freight volumes and slow the pace of recovery.
Central and Eastern Europe to Drive Long-Term Growth
In the longer term, Transport Intelligence expects the European road freight market to continue growing until 2030.
The average annual growth rate is forecast at around 1.9%. Much of this expansion is expected to come from Central and Central-Eastern Europe.
These regions continue to benefit from industrial investment, nearshoring, infrastructure development, and their strategic position between Western Europe, the Balkans, the Baltic region, and Eastern markets.
As logistics networks become more complex, carriers will also need to consider operational risks beyond market demand. Earlier, K2Cargo News reported that Europe is introducing summer truck driving restrictions for 2026, showing how seasonal regulation can affect route planning and delivery schedules.
A Recovery With Conditions
The latest Transport Intelligence report gives the European road freight sector a more optimistic outlook than earlier forecasts suggested.
The market is growing, demand is slowly recovering, and the medium-term outlook remains positive. However, this recovery will not automatically translate into higher profits for carriers.
Rising road tolls, fuel price volatility, weak performance in major economies, driver shortages, and regulatory pressure continue to create challenges.
Companies that can control costs, optimize routes, renew fleets, and adapt quickly to regional market changes are likely to benefit most from the next phase of growth.
Read also: New Report Reveals Widespread Problems in Europe’s International Road Transport Sector
