The Russian warehouse real estate market is no longer operating under the conditions of acute shortage that shaped the behavior of tenants and developers in recent years. According to Alexey Obukhovsky, Deputy Director for Corporate Clients at NF Group, demand for warehouse leasing in the first half of 2026 fell by half compared with the same period last year.
However, the expert does not see this as a sign of crisis. Instead, it reflects a market restructuring that is directly affecting not only rental costs, but also the entire architecture of delivery chains. Companies are choosing locations more carefully, calculating warehouse space more precisely and building more flexible routes between distribution centers, marketplaces, logistics operators and end consumers.
The main region in question is the Moscow region. It remains Russia’s largest and most representative warehouse market, while changes in rental rates, vacancy levels and negotiations between tenants and landlords are gradually influencing logistics strategies across the country.
For logistics companies, retailers and marketplace operators, the current phase creates a new reality. The market is no longer driven only by the need to secure any available space. It is increasingly driven by the ability to choose the right facility, in the right location, with the right commercial terms and the right role within a delivery network.
As K2Cargo News previously reported in EDB and Griffin Partners to Build $125 Million Logistics Park in Almaty, logistics real estate remains a strategic part of modern supply chains. The Russian market now shows that the value of warehouse space is increasingly measured not only in square meters, but also in how effectively those meters support delivery flows.
Moscow Region Remains the Key Market Indicator
Although similar trends are visible across Russia, the Moscow region remains the main reference point for the warehouse market.
According to Obukhovsky, asking rental rates in the Moscow region stood at around 10,500 rubles per square meter per year in the first half of 2026. By the end of the year, NF Group expects the figure to decline to around 9,500 rubles.
At the same time, real transactions are being closed both above and below these levels. This makes it difficult to calculate one universal average market rate. The final price depends on location, technical specifications, transport access, building quality, labor availability, lease term and the tenant’s negotiating position.
This is one of the clearest signs of a more balanced market. When vacancy is low and demand is overheated, landlords dictate the terms. When supply grows and tenants have alternatives, negotiations become more detailed and more individualized.
For delivery chains, this matters because warehouse location is no longer a forced decision. Tenants can compare options and choose facilities that better match their route geography, consumer demand, courier networks and regional distribution plans.
Demand Has Fallen, but the Market Has Not Collapsed
A 50% decline in warehouse leasing demand may sound alarming, but NF Group does not interpret it as a market crash.
The main reason is structural adjustment. In previous years, many companies rushed to secure warehouse space because of shortages, rapid e-commerce expansion and expectations of further rental growth. In 2026, tenants are behaving more cautiously and more rationally.
Companies are no longer leasing space “just in case.” They are calculating real capacity needs, evaluating sublease options, comparing locations and negotiating more actively.
This shift is especially visible in the structure of transactions. According to NF Group, no warehouse sale deals were recorded in the first six months of 2026. All closed contracts were lease or sublease agreements.
The reason is the high cost of financing. With a standard capital structure of 30% equity and 70% debt, current bank rates make warehouse ownership economically difficult for many companies. Leasing remains the more realistic option.
For supply chains, this means that flexibility is becoming more valuable than ownership. Companies prefer to preserve the ability to adjust their warehouse footprint as demand, delivery routes and regional sales patterns change.
Logistics Operators Are Closing the Gap With Marketplaces
Online retail and marketplaces remain the main drivers of warehouse demand in Russia. However, transport and logistics companies moved into second place by demand volume in the first half of 2026.
NF Group recorded several new transactions with logistics operators over the past six months. Obukhovsky linked this trend to the reduction in the average transaction size.
In 2025, the average warehouse deal was around 20,000 square meters. In 2026, it declined to approximately 13,000–15,000 square meters. This format is more accessible for logistics companies, allowing them to participate more confidently in tenders and secure premises that previously might have been absorbed by large marketplace projects.
For 3PL providers, this creates an important opportunity. When demand is less overheated, they can negotiate better terms, improve locations and strengthen delivery networks without competing only against the largest online retailers.
This may gradually change the balance between marketplaces and independent logistics operators. Marketplaces will continue to dominate demand, but logistics companies are becoming more active players in the warehouse market because they need strategically located facilities to serve multiple clients and delivery flows.
Delivery Chains Are Becoming More Flexible
The decline in overheated warehouse demand does not mean that Russia’s logistics market is slowing down. Instead, it gives companies an opportunity to rebuild delivery chains more rationally.
During the period of limited supply, tenants often accepted available warehouse space even when the location, transport access or operational format was not ideal. The new market balance changes this logic. With more options available, companies can choose warehouses based on real delivery routes, order density, labor availability and proximity to key consumer zones.
For marketplaces, this can help optimize distribution networks and reduce last-mile costs. For 3PL operators, it creates an opportunity to secure better locations and offer faster, more resilient delivery solutions. For retailers, it allows a more careful balance between central warehouses, regional hubs and urban Light Industrial facilities.
As a result, the warehouse market is beginning to influence not only rental rates, but also the structure of delivery chains across Russia. The strongest players will not simply be those leasing more space, but those able to integrate warehouse capacity into a smarter logistics network.
This is especially important for companies working with fast-moving consumer goods, e-commerce, regional retail, express delivery and marketplace fulfillment. In these segments, the wrong warehouse location can increase delivery costs, reduce service quality and weaken competitiveness.
Landlords Are Becoming More Flexible
One of the most important changes is the behavior of landlords.
For the first time in several years, warehouse owners are increasingly ready to negotiate not only the headline rental rate, but also the full package of commercial terms. These include indexation, rent-free periods, fit-out conditions, lease duration and other concessions.
This does not mean that landlords are losing control of the market. Rather, they are entering a period of healthier competition for high-quality tenants.
Vacancy is growing gradually, new projects that were contracted earlier are entering the market, and sublease supply is becoming more visible. Companies are optimizing costs and trying to return excess space to the market, often with the help of consultants.
For tenants, this creates a favorable moment to reassess warehouse strategies. Companies that previously had limited choice can now compare several facilities and structure agreements more carefully.
For delivery chains, more flexible lease terms can be just as important as lower rates. Rent-free periods, phased occupation, shorter commitments or better fit-out conditions can help companies launch new distribution models with less financial pressure.
Regional Markets Are Moving Closer to Moscow
According to NF Group, most regional markets have largely aligned with the Moscow region in terms of rates and vacancy. The main exception is the Far East.
Vladivostok remains an anomaly because of high construction costs and a shortage of ready-to-use warehouse space. The region’s import flows, geographic position and limited quality supply create a different market dynamic.
In the rest of Russia, the gap between Moscow and regional warehouse markets is narrowing. This reflects the broader development of logistics infrastructure beyond the capital region.
For national delivery chains, this is a significant trend. Companies increasingly need a balanced warehouse footprint across several regions rather than relying only on Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Regional warehouses can reduce delivery distances, shorten lead times and improve service quality outside the largest metropolitan markets. As regional supply grows, companies can build more distributed logistics networks instead of routing too much cargo through one central hub.
Light Industrial Attracts New Investors
The Light Industrial segment is also becoming more important.
NF Group expects a record volume of new supply in this format in 2027, with 2.5–3 million square meters planned for delivery. Asking rental rates in the segment reach around 13,500 rubles per square meter per year on a triple net basis, while purchase prices for individual blocks are estimated at 120,000–130,000 rubles per square meter.
The segment is attracting a new group of investors: private individuals with portfolios in residential and retail real estate. These investors are comparing the profitability of familiar asset classes with Light Industrial and increasingly considering the format as an alternative.
For delivery chains, Light Industrial can play an important role because it combines warehousing, small-scale production, service operations and urban distribution. These facilities can support last-mile logistics, repair centers, small fulfillment operations and regional service hubs.
This is why the segment is gaining attention not only from investors, but also from companies trying to move closer to consumers without leasing large traditional warehouse blocks.
What This Means for the Logistics Market
The Russian warehouse market is entering a transition period.
For tenants, this is a better moment to search for space, negotiate terms and structure leases more carefully. For landlords, it is a time to compete not only through location and building quality, but also through flexibility and commercial creativity.
For logistics operators, the current phase may be especially favorable. Marketplaces still dominate demand, but smaller average deal sizes allow 3PL companies and transport operators to compete more effectively for suitable premises.
The market is not collapsing. It is becoming more balanced, more selective and more professional.
The most important change is that warehouse space is now being evaluated through its role in delivery chains. A cheaper facility may not be the best option if it increases delivery costs or complicates route planning. A more expensive location may be justified if it improves service speed, supports regional coverage and reduces last-mile expenses.
The strongest position will belong to companies that understand the new environment: tenants that use competition between landlords wisely, developers that adapt to real demand, and logistics providers that can secure the right space at the right cost before the next cycle of growth begins.
Read also: EDB and Griffin Partners to Build $125 Million Logistics Park in Almaty
