ATI.SU Index Reaches an All-Time High
Road freight rates in Russia have risen sharply, with the ATI.SU FTL Russia Index reaching 2,086 points by July 13. This is the highest level recorded since the indicator was launched.
The index, based on rates across 100 major domestic routes, increased by 28.8% year on year and by 17.5% from the end of May. Prices rose on every route included in the calculation.
Some of the strongest increases were recorded between Veliky Novgorod and St Petersburg, Irkutsk and Novosibirsk, and Yekaterinburg and Kazan. On these routes, annual freight rate growth exceeded 50%.
The increase is unusual because it has not been accompanied by comparable growth in cargo demand. The number of freight orders in the second quarter remained close to the level recorded a year earlier, suggesting that the main pressure is coming from the supply side.
Fuel Shortage Reduces Available Truck Capacity
Fuel shortages and restrictions at filling stations are lowering the real productivity of Russian truck fleets. Drivers are spending more time waiting for diesel, making additional refuelling stops and avoiding routes where fuel availability is uncertain.
Some carriers have temporarily withdrawn from long-distance operations and moved toward urban or regional deliveries. Shorter routes reduce the risk of being stranded without fuel and make it easier to control operating costs.
This does not necessarily mean that large numbers of trucks have permanently left the market. However, when vehicles spend longer completing each journey, the same fleet can handle fewer orders. Effective transport capacity declines even if the physical number of trucks remains unchanged.
Fuel is only one part of the cost increase. Expensive leasing, higher repair and spare-parts costs, insurance, driver wages and costly credit are also forcing carriers to revise rates after a prolonged period of low profitability.
K2Cargo News previously reported how the fuel crisis was already increasing Russian road freight costs. The latest ATI.SU data show that the pressure has now spread across the entire domestic market.
International Freight Rates Rise Faster Than Demand
The international road freight market presents a mixed picture. The number of export orders in the second quarter remained close to the 2025 level but fell by 19% compared with the first three months of 2026.
Kazakhstan was the only major export direction to record quarterly growth, with orders increasing by 12%. Activity declined toward Belarus and Uzbekistan, while the number of orders to Kyrgyzstan was almost three times lower than in the first quarter.
Import demand fell by 8% year on year. China was the main exception, with orders rising by 36%, while imports from Kazakhstan dropped by 48%.
Despite weak or uneven demand, international rates increased significantly. Export transport prices rose by around 20% year on year, while import rates increased by 43%. This suggests that rising operating and regulatory costs are having a stronger impact on prices than cargo volumes.
Customs controls, navigation seals and the new Shipment Expectation Confirmation System are adding more procedures to road imports from the Eurasian Economic Union. Carriers and importers must now coordinate documents before vehicles reach the Russian border, increasing the risk of delays when information is incomplete.
Rate Relief Is Unlikely Before the Autumn Peak
A rapid decline in freight rates appears unlikely while fuel supplies remain unpredictable and fleet capacity continues to tighten. Industry participants estimate that a noticeable share of trucks is currently inactive because of fuel, maintenance, financing and operational problems.
The situation differs significantly by route. Transport from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk has reportedly become 45–50% more expensive than a year ago, while the highly competitive Vladivostok–Moscow route remains relatively stable at around RUB 800,000–900,000.
The next major test will come at the end of summer. International transport demand traditionally increases in autumn, while the compulsory transition to electronic transport documents begins on September 1.
Digital documents should eventually simplify freight operations, but the initial adjustment may cause delays if shippers, carriers and warehouses are not technically prepared. Combined with fuel risks and seasonal demand, this could support another rate increase before the end of the third quarter.
For cargo owners, the market is moving toward shorter planning cycles. Rates may need to be reviewed every few weeks, while longer delivery windows and alternative routes should be considered for regions facing fuel disruptions.
Read also: Russia Bans Gasoline Exports Until July 31
