The European road freight market is entering a new phase of transformation. Over the past two decades, the largest economies of Western Europe have remained the main centers of transport activity. However, by 2030 the situation may change significantly. New freight flow forecasts indicate that the fastest growth in cargo traffic will occur in Central and Eastern Europe, while traditional transport routes gradually lose their previous dominance.
The study, based on transport models developed by the German Fraunhofer ISI institute in Karlsruhe and analyzed by the “Kartografia Ekstremalna” project, illustrates how Europe’s main freight corridors are expected to evolve by the end of this decade. The analysis covers freight traffic forecasts across more than 1,600 European regions and evaluates transport volumes through 2030.
Central Europe Becomes a New Growth Center
The highest growth rates are expected on routes connecting the so-called “new” and “old” European Union member states.
According to the forecasts, freight flows between Poland and Germany, the Czech Republic and Germany, as well as Hungary and Austria could increase by more than 100% compared with the beginning of the decade. This points to the further strengthening of Central Europe as a key manufacturing and logistics hub within the EU.
The main drivers of this growth include:
- Relocation of part of the manufacturing base closer to European markets;
- Expansion of nearshoring strategies;
- Growth in industrial production across Central Europe;
- Development of logistics centers and warehousing infrastructure;
- Modernization of TEN-T transport corridors.
For international carriers, this means continued strong demand for routes connecting Germany with Central European countries throughout the remainder of the decade.
Eastern Europe Strengthens Internal Connections
Even more interesting is the projected growth in freight traffic between Central and Eastern European countries.
Significant increases are expected on routes such as:
- Poland – Czech Republic;
- Poland – Baltic States;
- Czech Republic – Slovakia;
- Hungary – neighboring countries in the region;
- Other routes within Central and Eastern Europe.
Experts note that this trend reflects the gradual formation of a more integrated regional economic space, where intra-regional trade is growing faster than traffic between Eastern and Western Europe.
The United Kingdom Remains an Important Transport Market
Despite Brexit, freight transport between continental Europe and the British Isles continues to show strong growth potential.
Forecasts suggest that routes between the Benelux countries and the United Kingdom, as well as between Benelux and Ireland, may also experience traffic growth exceeding 100%.
This indicates that trade relations between the EU and the UK remain highly intensive, while logistics companies continue investing heavily in the development of these transport corridors.
Western Europe Grows Much More Slowly
Most traditional Western European routes are expected to see only moderate growth.
In particular, freight volumes are forecast to increase by up to 50% on routes between:
- Germany and France;
- France and Spain;
- Benelux countries and France;
- Germany and Denmark.
While these figures remain positive, they are significantly lower than the projected growth in Central Europe. This suggests that Western European markets are gradually approaching saturation, while the eastern part of the continent retains substantial growth potential.
Italy and Portugal May Face a Decline in Freight Traffic
One of the study’s most surprising conclusions is the forecast decline in freight traffic in certain Southern European countries.
Italy is expected to experience particularly noticeable reductions. Analysts estimate that declining freight volumes could affect much of the country, from northern industrial regions to southern territories. A similar trend is projected for Portugal.
The reasons behind this decline include:
- Changes in manufacturing supply chains;
- Shifting logistics flows toward Central Europe;
- Development of new transport routes;
- Increasing competition from Eastern European logistics hubs.
What This Means for the Transport Industry
For international carriers, the forecasts send a clear message: by 2030, the most attractive routes are likely to be those linking Germany with Central and Eastern Europe.
The importance of transport corridors running through Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Baltic States is expected to increase significantly. These areas are projected to attract new warehouses, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities.
For logistics operators, this means adapting development strategies, fleet investments, and infrastructure planning today to align with the future geography of freight flows.
Europe Prepares for a New Transport Map
Fraunhofer’s forecasts indicate that Europe’s freight market is gradually becoming less dominated by Western Europe. The center of growth is increasingly shifting toward Central and Eastern Europe, where new industrial clusters and logistics hubs are emerging.
If current trends continue, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Baltic States could become some of the main drivers of road freight growth in the European Union by the early 2030s, while traditional Western European transport routes are expected to expand at a much more moderate pace.
Read also: Mediterranean Hubs Dominate Global Rankings While Southern Europe Struggles with Congestion
