The Average Warehouse Deal Has Almost Halved
Russia’s warehouse property market is undergoing a rapid change in the structure of demand.
The average transaction in the first half of 2026 covered 3,200 square metres, down from 5,500 square metres a year earlier.
That represents a 1.8-fold reduction.
Bright Rich | CORFAC International data show that both leasing and acquisitions have moved toward smaller units, although the change has been particularly sharp in purchases.
The average size of a warehouse acquisition fell 74.6%, from 32,300 to 8,200 square metres. For leases, the average transaction decreased 33.1%, from 9,600 to 6,400 square metres.
Importantly, the 74.6% figure refers to the average size of a warehouse purchase, not to a 74.6% decline in total warehouse sales.
The wider shift is that companies are increasingly taking only the space required by current operations rather than securing capacity for possible expansion several years ahead.
Large Blocks Have Suffered the Sharpest Decline
The steepest contraction was recorded in warehouse blocks exceeding 15,000 square metres.
Transaction volume in this category fell 59.5% to 507,500 square metres.
Demand for units between 10,000 and 15,000 square metres dropped 48.8%. Companies leased or purchased 266,800 square metres in this segment during the first half of 2025, compared with only 136,500 square metres this year.
The 5,000–10,000-square-metre segment proved more resilient, declining 10.4% to 173,400 square metres.
The pattern is clear: the larger the block, the smaller the pool of companies currently prepared to commit to filling it.
This does not mean large distribution centres have become completely illiquid. They still account for a substantial share of total activity. But finding a single tenant for a very large warehouse has become much more difficult.
Smaller Warehouses Are Moving Against the Market
Small and medium-sized units have moved in the opposite direction.
Transactions involving premises below 2,500 square metres increased 20.9% to 71,200 square metres.
Demand for blocks between 2,500 and 5,000 square metres rose 10.6% to 118,300 square metres.
The market is therefore not simply shrinking. It is fragmenting.
Companies increasingly prefer to take a smaller amount of space today and add capacity later if demand justifies expansion.
That reduces fixed costs and gives logistics networks more flexibility when sales volumes or distribution patterns change.
The trend continues the restructuring K2Cargo.News previously examined in Russia’s Warehouse Market Reshapes Delivery Chains.
During the period of acute warehouse shortages, tenants often secured more space than they immediately needed. In the current market, flexibility has become more valuable than holding excess capacity.
Total Warehouse Demand Has Fallen 47%
The reduction in individual deal sizes is occurring alongside a broader market slowdown.
Warehouse leasing and acquisition transactions across Russia totalled approximately 1 million square metres during January–June 2026.
A year earlier, the market absorbed around 1.9 million square metres.
Total transaction volume has therefore fallen 47%.
For a market that had spent several years dealing with scarce supply, rapid marketplace expansion and aggressive distribution-centre development, this represents a major change.
Businesses are no longer securing future logistics capacity at almost any cost.
Bright Rich co-founder and partner Viktor Zaglumin attributes the shift to a more conservative approach. Companies are increasingly making warehouse decisions according to immediate requirements rather than long-term expansion plans.
Food Retailers Have Almost Stopped Expanding
Food retailers recorded the most dramatic contraction.
Their warehouse transactions fell 87.1% to only 22,400 square metres.
Manufacturing companies reduced activity 79.6% to 90,300 square metres.
Marketplaces, which had been among the largest drivers of Russian warehouse demand, cut absorption 50.5% to 151,900 square metres.
The change in behaviour among large occupiers is particularly challenging for owners of major distribution centres.
A 50,000–100,000-square-metre building cannot always be divided quickly among dozens of smaller tenants without additional investment in utilities, loading areas, traffic flows and internal separation.
Developers therefore face a new form of risk: a warehouse may be technically modern and well located but still offer units that are too large for current demand.
Logistics Operators Are Expanding Instead
Transport and logistics operators stand out against the wider decline.
Their warehouse demand increased 21.1% during the first half of 2026 to 154,000 square metres.
Non-food retailers were even more active, leasing and purchasing 313,400 square metres, up 13.4% year on year.
For 3PL operators, the decline in average transaction size creates opportunities.
Previously, independent logistics companies often competed for buildings against marketplaces and national retail chains capable of absorbing tens of thousands of square metres in one transaction.
A 3PL operator can more easily lease 3,000–7,000 square metres, use the site for several customers and expand as new contracts are secured.
That is considerably less risky than taking a huge distribution centre based on forecasts of future business.
Moscow Is Holding Up Better Than the Regions
The geographical picture also varies considerably.
Moscow and the Moscow region recorded a 39% decline in warehouse transactions, from around 1.3 million to 790,200 square metres.
Despite the scale of that contraction, the capital remained the country’s most resilient warehouse market.
St Petersburg and the Leningrad region recorded a much deeper 62% decline, from 361,200 to 138,600 square metres.
Other regional markets fell 64%, from 306,100 to 139,000 square metres.
The difference largely reflects freight geography.
The Moscow region remains Russia’s dominant distribution hub. Even when companies reduce inventories and stop securing capacity in advance, they still need warehousing close to the country’s largest consumer concentration.
Regional markets are more dependent on individual large tenants and built-to-suit developments. When one major project is cancelled or postponed, its effect on local transaction statistics can be substantial.
Built-to-Suit Projects Are Becoming Riskier
The reduction in average deal size could also reshape development strategies.
During the previous market cycle, a major occupier could pre-lease tens of thousands of square metres, allowing a developer to construct a facility specifically around that company’s requirements.
Such decisions are harder to justify today.
If a client cuts its expansion programme, replacing it with another tenant for an entire large block can be difficult.
New developments may therefore increasingly be designed so buildings can be divided into several autonomous sections with separate loading docks, utilities and truck circulation.
The value of a warehouse is no longer determined only by how large the building is.
It is increasingly determined by how easily the building can be divided.
Landlords Face Greater Competition for Tenants
During the shortage years, owners of quality warehouses could select tenants and maintain relatively firm commercial conditions.
Weaker demand changes that negotiating balance.
A company looking for 3,000 square metres has far more alternatives than one searching for a 30,000-square-metre block.
Tenants can compare transport access, location, rent, indexation and technical specifications across several properties.
For landlords, losing one potential large tenant now has a greater impact.
This is likely to encourage rent-free periods, more flexible lease terms, phased occupation and greater willingness to divide existing units.
For logistics companies, the change can be positive because they can select premises based on the actual role of a warehouse in the supply chain rather than simply accepting whatever space is available.
Marketplaces Are No Longer the Unquestioned Growth Engine
The 50.5% contraction in marketplace demand sends another important signal.
In recent years, major online platforms constructed and leased enormous logistics complexes, generating demand for hundreds of thousands of square metres.
Their approach is now becoming more selective.
That does not mean Russian e-commerce is abandoning logistics expansion. Instead, operators are increasingly focusing on the productivity of existing facilities, inventory distribution and more precise regional network planning.
The impact on warehouse property is significant because one large marketplace transaction can materially change the statistics of an entire region.
When several major projects are reduced or postponed simultaneously, total market absorption falls rapidly.
A Big Warehouse No Longer Guarantees Big Demand
The first half of 2026 suggests that Russia’s warehouse market has entered a different phase.
Companies still need logistics infrastructure, but they require greater flexibility from it.
The average transaction has fallen to 3,200 square metres, small blocks are gaining demand and properties exceeding 10,000–15,000 square metres are losing potential tenants much faster than the wider market.
Developers may need to redesign future buildings. Existing owners may need to divide large facilities. Tenants have an opportunity to take only the capacity they actually need and negotiate harder on commercial terms.
For logistics operators, however, the slowdown could create an opportunity.
As marketplaces and major retailers stop absorbing the largest facilities in single transactions, independent 3PL providers gain access to better properties without having to commit to tens of thousands of unnecessary square metres.
Russia’s warehouse market is not disappearing. It is moving from a race for space toward a competition over how efficiently every square metre is used.
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